Modeling stabilizing the of orchard managers on the shores of Lake Urmia against late spring frost

Abstract

Despite the adverse effects of late spring frost on the ecological and economic impact on agriculture, the management of these events are poorly investigated. Therefore, the grounded theory was used for extracting the livelihood stabilization model of orchardists on the shores of Lake Urmia against late spring frosts. The statistical population of this study in the qualitative part included 22 experts in the field of horticulture. In the quantitative study, they included all orchardists in the villages along with Lake Urmia, comprising 341 people, of which 236 were randomly selected. By carefully examining and linking the concepts and subcategories, the most important subcategories that were included six subcategories. The results of all calculated goodness-of-fit indexes (chi-square [P > 0.01], RMSEA = 0.000, NFI = 0.95, CFI = 0.91, and GFI = 0.92) showed the model provided an excellent fit for the data. Standardized regression coefficients showed that interfering factors had the greatest impact on the livelihood of orchardists against late spring frosts (β = 0.47). Also, the background factors (β = 0.43) and causal factors (β = 0.39) were found to affect the livelihood of the orchardists in encountering late spring frost. The results of multiple square correlations of dependent variables also indicated that about 41% of the livelihood variance of small-scale orchardists was explained by the predictor variables (i.e. causal conditions, background factors and interfering factors). The findings of this study can assist policymakers, planners and relevant managers while paying more attention to orchardists in the region, so as to support decisions in order to achieve sustainable development.