Stochastic generation of spatially coherent river discharge peaks for continental event-based flood risk assessment

Abstract

We present a new method to generate spatially coherent river discharge peaks over multiple river basins, which can be used for continental event-based probabilistic flood risk assessment. We first extract extreme events from river discharge time series data over a large set of locations by applying new peak identification and peak-matching methods. Then we describe these events using the discharge peak at each location while accounting for the fact that the events do not affect all locations. Lastly we fit the state-of-the-art multivariate extreme value distribution to the discharge peaks and generate from the fitted model a large catalogue of spatially coherent synthetic event descriptors. We demonstrate the capability of this approach in capturing the statistical dependence over all considered locations. We also discuss the limitations of this approach and investigate the sensitivity of the outcome to various model parameters.