Ionosphere data assimilation capabilities for representing the high-latitude geomagnetic storm event in September 2011

Abstract

Severe geomagnetic storms have a strong impact on space communication and satellite navigation systems. Forecasting the appearance of geomagnetically induced disturbances in the ionosphere is one of the urgent goals of the space weather community. The challenge is that the processes governing the distribution of the crucial ionospheric parameters have a rather poor quantitative description, and the models, built using the empirical parameterizations, have limited capabilities for operational purposes. On the other hand, data assimilation techniques are becoming more and more popular for nowcasting the state of the large-scale geophysical systems. We present an example of an ionospheric data assimilation system performance assessment during a strong geomagnetic event, which took place on 26 September 2011. The first-principle model has assimilated slant total electron content measurements from a dense network of ground stations, provided by the Norwegian Mapping Authority. The results have shown satisfactory agreement with independent data and demonstrate that the assimilation model is accurate to about 2-4 total electron content units and can be used for operational purposes in high-latitude regions. The operational system performance assessment is the subject of future work. Key Points September 2011 geomagnetic storm impact on the ionosphere was modeled Data assimilation model accuracy was assessed for the calm and disturbed period Ionosphere has shown significant anomalies which were captured by the data assimilation model