Probabilistic evaluation of wind power generation

Abstract

The power supplied by wind turbine generators (WTG) is widely random following the stochastic nature of weather conditions. For planning and decision making purposes, understanding and evaluation of the behaviour and distribution of WTG's output power are crucial. Monte Carlo simulation enables the realization of artificial futures by generating a huge number of sample paths of outcomes to perform this analysis. The paper presents an algorithm developed for a random wind speed generator governed by the probability density function of Weibull distribution and evaluates the WTG's output by using the power curve of wind turbines. The method may facilitate assessment of suitable turbine site as well as generator selection and sizing. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.