Analyzing the box jenkins methodology: predicting apple production in Pakistan

Abstract

Utilizing the ARIMA model, this investigation explores the growth patterns of apple farming regions and outputs in Pakistan between 1959-60 to 2019-20. Moreover, it predicts future trends from 2021 to 2030. This study aims to provide an all-encompassing evaluation and future projection, particularly regarding apple farming as a significant contributor in the horticultural sector of Pakistan's economy. The purpose is to assist decision-makers by offering insightful guidance based on this pivotal role of agriculture. The study utilized time series data obtained from the Federal Bureau of Statistics and employed EViews software for analysis. Through this, they determined that the most effective model to use for forecasting was ARIMA (1,1,0). According to the findings, apple cultivation and production are projected to consistently expand in Pakistan over the next decade. This indicates a promising future for the country's apple farming industry. According to forecasts, the apple farming area will increase from 200.66 thousand hectares in 2021 to 247.02 thousand hectares by 2030 along with an estimated rise in production output from its current level of 6094.29 thousand tonnes to approximately 693 .98thousand tons during this period. The importance of accurate forecasting in agricultural planning is highlighted in this paper, along with the need to overcome sectoral obstacles and capitalize on growth prospects. By adding new insights to the field of agricultural prediction, this research highlights a promising future for apple farming in Pakistan.