Diffusion models in Analysing emerging technology- based services

Abstract

In this article we discuss the problems of utilizing innovation diffusion (or, adoption) models in developing scenarios for mobile commerce services in three European countries: Finland, Germany, and Greece. We are not to test the various diffusion models as such, but rather to utilise the fundamental ideas of the models in determining the prerequisites for, the status of, and the pace of diffusion of mobile services in these different market areas. The estimates would serve as a starting point and as a validity check for scenario development. The early experience at the research design phase show that the 'mainstream' diffusion approach is vulnerable to three factors specific to the adoption of services that are subject to technical change and development: 'layered' adoption process in its social context, supply side, and continuous technical development. © 2002 Kluwer Academic Publishers.