Estimating the burden of dengue in the Philippines using a dynamic transmission model

Abstract

Objectve. This study aimed to describe dengue burden in the Philippines. Specifcally, health and economic costs of the disease were estmated. Methods. A published serotype-specifc and age-stratfed dengue dynamic transmission model was populated with Philippine-specifc dengue epidemiology and cost data. Data were gathered from literature and record reviews. Dengue experts were consulted to validate the model parameters. Sensitvity analyses were performed to test the uncertainty of input parameters on model outcomes. Results. By 2016 to 2020, it is estmated that annually, average hospitalized cases will amount to 401,191 and ambulatory cases will amount to 239,497; resultng to USD 139 million (PhP 5.9 billion) and USD 19 million (PhP 827 million) worth of aggregate costs shouldered by the public payer for hospitalized and ambulatory cases, respectvely. Average annual productvity losses may amount to USD 19 million (PhP 821 million) and DALY lost is expected to be 50,622. Conclusion. The cost of dengue is high especially since the Philippines is an endemic country. Thus, there is a need to optmize government interventons such as vector control and vaccinaton that aim to prevent dengue infectons.