Climate Leads to Reversed Latitudinal Changes in Chinese Flood Peak Timing

Abstract

Changes in river floods under a changing climate are of worldwide concerns, but relevant knowledge is limited especially over the East Asia monsoon region. Here we examine changes in flood peak timing based on the most comprehensive flood data set to date across China during 1961–2017. The temporal shifts of Chinese flood peak timing range from −19.0 days earlier to +14.0 days later per decade. Earlier flood occurrences are mainly observed in northern China, with delayed flood occurrences in the south. The spatial pattern of reversed latitudinal changes in flood timing leads to growing spatial extents of concurrent river floods over China. Soil moisture plays an important role in modulating such changes, despite precipitation determines the climatological mean dates of flood occurrences. Our results highlight a strong climate signal on the changes in flood timing over China, and call for coordinated efforts in alleviating expanding flood hazards related to the changes in flood timing.