A novel risk assessment approach for strait/canal security evaluation along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road

Abstract

The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) designed by China is of great importance to maritime transportation, economic development, and environmental protection. However, the straits/canals along the MSR have been struggling with pirate attacks, terrorism, and accidents which pose challenges for the security of MSR. There is a strong need for further investigation in strait/canal security evaluation. However, the traditional risk modelling approach used in risk assessment indicates challenges due to its incapability of dealing with incomplete data, uncertainties, and subjective judgment. Thus, we propose a novel strait/canal security assessment framework to evaluate the security of the strait/canal along the MSR on the basis of a fuzzy evidential reasoning approach. The subjective risk analysis information collection and processing process from multiple experts can be embedded in the framework in a systematic way to provide maritime stakeholders to evaluate maritime security along the MSR. The results provide decision makers with useful insights and standard tools on enhancing strait/canal security, effective routes planning as well as operational efficiency.