Survival in HIV-positive transplant recipients compared with transplant candidates and with HIV-negative controls

Abstract

Objectives: To evaluate the impact of liver and kidney transplantation on survival in HIV-positive transplant candidates and compare outcomes between HIV-positive and negative recipients. Design: Observational cohort of HIV-positive transplant candidates and recipients and secondary analysis comparing study recipients to HIV-negative national registry controls. Methods: Wefit proportional hazards models to assess transplantation impact on mortality among recipients and candidates. We compared time to graft failure and death with HIV-negative controls in unmatched, demographic-matched, and risk-adjusted models. Results: There were 17 (11.3%) and 46 (36.8%) deaths among kidney and liver recipients during a median follow-up of 4.0 and 3.5 years, respectively. Transplantation was associated with survival benefit for HIV-infected liver recipients with model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) greater than or equal 15 [hazard ratio (HR) 0.1; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.05, 0.01; P<0.0001], but not for MELD less than 15 (HR 0.7; 95% CI 0.3, 1.8; P=0.43) or for kidney recipients (HR 0.6; 95% CI 0.3, 1.4; P=0.23). In HIV-positive kidney recipients, unmatched and risk-matched analyses indicated a marginally significant HR for graft loss [1.3 (P=0.07) and HR 1.4 (P=0.052)]; no significant increase in risk of death was observed. All models demonstrated a higher relative hazard of graft loss or death in HIV-positive liver recipients; the absolute difference in the proportion of deaths was 6.7% in the risk-matched analysis. Conclusion: Kidney transplantation should be standard of care for well managed HIV-positive patients. Liver transplant in candidates with high MELD confers survival benefit; transplant is a viable option in selected candidates. The increased mortality risk compared with HIV-negative recipients was modest.