The (null) effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Europeans’ attitudes toward democracy

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the short-term impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Europeans’ attitudes toward democracy. For this purpose, we leverage the coincidence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 with the fieldwork of the European Social Survey in 10 countries. By means of an unexpected event during survey design, we analyze the impact of the invasion on 12 different attitudes toward democracy, including overt support for democracy, satisfaction with democracy, as well as the importance attributed to particular democratic principles. The results of this comprehensive analysis reveal that the invasion did not have a substantive impact on individuals’ attitudes toward democracy. The invasion of a neighboring democratic country by an autocratic power did not alter Europeans’ satisfaction with democracy, their support for this political regime, or the importance they attribute to different democratic principles.