Flood Simulation for Different Scenarios Generated by the Influence of Climate Change in the Santa Eulalia Basin, Peru

Abstract

Based on data from 30 years of maximum daily rainfall (1988-2017) obtained from the 5 pluviometric stations: Santa Eulalia, Autisha, Carampoma, Sheque and Canchacalla, registered by the National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology (SENAMHI), possible floods in the margins of the Santa Eulalia river basin were evaluated. The analysis was carried out for 2 cases: a) normal conditions and b) with the presence of extreme events considering the incidence of the modification of meteorological conditions derived from climate change and also assessing the influence of the two hydraulic structures located within the river: bridge and riverbank defences. With the presence of extreme events, for T= 100 years, the water level increases but still remains within the limits of the wall design, while for T= 139 and 200 years, the fluid surpasses the limits of the existing riparian defence. Likewise, for T= 500 and 1000 years, it is observed that, in spite of the significant increase in water flow, the flow level continues without modifications in its behaviour and does not manage to exceed the heights considered in the design of the bridge for T= 500 and 1000 years. It can be concluded that, with the presence of extreme events given the simulation carried out, these conditions tend to generate flooding and affect the population near the Santa Eulalia river; however, the increase in flow does not reach the elevation of the lower part of the bridge structure.