Carry-over effects of weather and decision-making on nest success of a migratory shorebird

Abstract

Weather conditions experienced by birds can influence their migration decision-making and strategy both within and across seasons. Additionally, decision-making during migration may influence subsequent fitness (reproductive success and/or survival). Examining the effects of fine-scale weather variables on individuals throughout the year could help identify stages of the annual cycle when species may be most affected by weather. In this study, we captured 24 black-bellied plovers (gray plovers; Pluvialis squatarola) on nonbreeding areas along the western Gulf of Mexico coast and tracked their locations once every 2 h through their breeding season in the Alaskan and Canadian Arctic. We quantified migration strategies and weather conditions experienced by each individual throughout the nonbreeding, northward migration, and breeding seasons. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model which connected regressions linking weather with migration metrics, and migration metrics and breeding season weather with reproductive success. We found strong negative relationships between two migration metrics (migration duration and number of stopovers) and reproductive success, but no substantial relationships between breeding season weather variables and reproductive success. We found negative relationships between nonbreeding season temperature, migration temperature, and migration NDVI and both migration duration and number of stopovers, in addition to positive relationships between the number of stopovers and storms during migration, migration duration, and nonbreeding season precipitation. These results suggest that reproductive success is influenced by weather throughout the annual cycle and migration strategy is a key mechanism through which these effects operate. Our findings suggest that environmental factors throughout the year influence shorebird fitness, and, because black-bellied plovers are often associated with mixed-species flocks, many species likely experience similar constraints.