Testing, social distancing and age specific quarantine for COVID-19: Case studies in Iligan City and Cagayan de Oro City, Philippines

Abstract

The world today grapples with the health crisis caused by the novel COVID-19. Unfortunately, the Philippines, which was spared from the previous epidemics like Ebola and SARS, is now facing this major obstacle. The local government units of the country responded by issuing guidelines to mitigate the spread of infection. Two neighboring cities in the Philippines, namely, Iligan and Cagayan de Oro have been the focus of this study. Simulations have been undertaken to investigate the prevalence of the disease and the health care systems capacity to accommodate critically ill patients over time. The effects of mitigating strategies like social distancing, age specific quarantine and testing were considered. The model used for the spread of COVID-19 is an individual-based SIR model. The results indicated that social distancing and age specific quarantine can effectively slow down the progression of the disease. Moreover, social distancing combined with an effective testing strategy can keep the epidemic subcritical.