Retrospective voting in Central and Eastern Europe: Hyper-accountability, corruption or socio-economic inequality?

Abstract

We investigate retrospective voting in the Central–Eastern European countries since the democratic transition. We find that the phenomenon of ‘hyper-accountability’ identified by earlier scholarship is still prevalent in the region – incumbents lose substantially on average. Economic conditions – unemployment and wealth – exert influence on the chances of incumbent re-election. However, contrary to expectations expressed in earlier scholarship, the influence of the economy on the election results does not strengthen over time. We also explore additional facets of retrospective voting and find that changes in socio-economic inequality are correlated with the vote share of incumbents. Finally, we also find evidence of an interaction between economic conditions and corruption as well as inequality when it comes to explaining incumbents’ electoral results.