Central Bank Independence and Inflation in Latin America—Through the Lens of History

Abstract

We study the link between central bank independence and inflation by providing narrative and empirical evidence based on Latin America's historical experience. Using a novel historical data set of central bank independence for 17 Latin American countries, we recount the rocky journey traveled by central banks to achieve independence and price stability. Our empirical analysis finds a strong negative association between central bank independence and inflation over the last 80 years, with improvements in independence resulting in a steady decline in inflation. Results are robust to endogeneity concerns and to using alternative central bank independence indices.