Exploring the Relationship Between Project Characteristics and Time–Cost Deviations for Colombian Rural Roads

Abstract

Rural road programs are essential for enhancing connectivity in remote areas, yet they frequently encounter schedule delays and budget overruns. This study explores the extent to which specific project characteristics influence these deviations in Colombian rural road contracts. A dataset comprising 229 projects was extracted from the national SECOP open-procurement platform and processed using the CRISP-DM protocol. Following the cleaning and coding of 14 project-level variables, statistical analyses were conducted using Spearman correlations, Kruskal–Wallis tests, and post-hoc Wilcoxon comparisons to identify significant bivariate relations I confirm I confirm I confirm hips. A Random Forest model was subsequently applied to determine the most influential multivariate predictors of cost and time deviations. In parallel, a directed content analysis of contract addenda reclassified 22 recorded deviation descriptors into ten internationally recognized categories of causality, enabling an integrated interpretation of both statistical and documentary evidence. The findings indicate that contract value, geographical region, and contractor configuration are significant determinants of cost and time performance. Additionally, project intensity and discrepancies between awarded and bid values emerged as key contributors to cost escalation. Scope changes and adverse weather conditions together accounted for 76% of all documented deviation triggers, underscoring the relevance of robust front-end planning and climate-risk considerations in rural infrastructure delivery. The findings provide information for stakeholders, policymakers, and professionals who aim to manage the risk of schedule and budget deviations in public infrastructure projects.