Boreal–Arctic wetland methane emissions modulated by warming and vegetation activity

Abstract

Wetland methane (CH4) emissions over the Boreal–Arctic region are vulnerable to climate change and linked to climate feedbacks, yet understanding of their long-term dynamics remains uncertain. Here, we upscaled and analysed two decades (2002–2021) of Boreal–Arctic wetland CH4 emissions, representing an unprecedented compilation of eddy covariance and chamber observations. We found a robust increasing trend of CH4 emissions (+8.9%) with strong inter-annual variability. The majority of emission increases occurred in early summer (June and July) and were mainly driven by warming (52.3%) and ecosystem productivity (40.7%). Moreover, a 2 °C temperature anomaly in 2016 led to the highest recorded annual CH4 emissions (22.3 Tg CH4 yr−1) over this region, driven primarily by high emissions over Western Siberian lowlands. However, current-generation models from the Global Carbon Project failed to capture the emission magnitude and trend, and may bias the estimates in future wetland CH4 emission driven by amplified Boreal–Arctic warming and greening.