Machine learning with physicochemical relationships: solubility prediction in organic solvents and water

Abstract

Solubility prediction remains a critical challenge in drug development, synthetic route and chemical process design, extraction and crystallisation. Here we report a successful approach to solubility prediction in organic solvents and water using a combination of machine learning (ANN, SVM, RF, ExtraTrees, Bagging and GP) and computational chemistry. Rational interpretation of dissolution process into a numerical problem led to a small set of selected descriptors and subsequent predictions which are independent of the applied machine learning method. These models gave significantly more accurate predictions compared to benchmarked open-access and commercial tools, achieving accuracy close to the expected level of noise in training data (LogS ± 0.7). Finally, they reproduced physicochemical relationship between solubility and molecular properties in different solvents, which led to rational approaches to improve the accuracy of each models.