Post COVID-19 financial distress in Pakistan: Prediction of corporate defaults at Pakistan Stock Exchange

Abstract

COVID-19 has slowed down the global economic activity. This slowdown is expected to turn into an economic recession, where firms are expected to experience financial distress leading to corporate defaults. Predicting such defaults is important to safeguard the stakeholders’ interest in the financial markets. This study has estimated the extent of financial distress among the firms listed at PSX and constituting KSE 30 index, by using Altman’s Z-Score. The score has been computed using the financial statements of year 2019-20, and on the proforma financial statements for year 2019-20 and 2020-21. These financial years are considered as pre and post COVID-19 closing dates respectively for the financial statements. The proforma financial statements have been drawn for financial year 2019-20 and 2020-21 using established accounting conventions of prudence, conservatism, substance over form, and foreseeable future. The results of Z-score in pre and post COVID-19 have been compared to assess the change in degree of financial distress among the selected firms. A significant increase in the degree of financial distress has been observed, which may lead to an increased number corporate default for the firms listed at PSX. The firms and corporate regulators need to curtail the rate of corporate defaults.