Application of the ordinary kriging method for prediction of the positive spread of Covid-19 in West Java

Abstract

The Ordinary Kriging method is a method used to predict an observation at an unobserved location based on observed points that are spatially related. Corona Virus Disease 19 (Covid-19) is a contagious disease and viral pathogenic infection caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2). This virus spreads almost all over the world including Indonesia and it gives an influence between location. In this study, a case study was carried out with predictions on the positive distribution data of Covid-19 at 27 districts/cities in West Java. The process of calculating predictions of the positive distribution Covid-19 is started by the determination of the experimental semivariogram model. The Covid-19 data have an Exponential Semivariogram model which is used as an input of the Ordinary Kriging. Furthermore, using the R program for the Ordinary Kriging, we can predict the observation of positive Covid-19 at unobserved locations in West Java.