Modeling invasion risk for coastal marine species utilizing environmental and transport vector data

Abstract

Invasive species can cause ecological and economic damage and can be transported by several vectors, many of which are connected to socioeconomic activities. This research presents a model that combines introduction likelihood and environmental suitability to characterize global patterns of invasion risk in coastal marine areas by identifying where a species is both likely to arrive and able to survive. The model projects environmental suitability using MaxEnt and considers commercial port locations, as a proxy for commercial shipping, to map patterns of relative invasion risk on a near global scale. A case study of five coastal marine crab species is presented. These models identify several regions that are at risk of new invasion where modeled environmental suitability and introduction likelihood overlap. The distribution of large commercial ports is near global but not evenly distributed; northern hemisphere temperate locations have a higher density of ports and tend to have more opportunities for invasion according to these models. This approach can be adapted to other marine and non-marine species and to current and future environmental and socioeconomic conditions, but it works best when occurrence data are representative of the complete range of conditions under which a species can survive.