Adult pertussis vaccination strategies and their impact on pertussis in the United States: Evaluation of routine and targeted (cocoon) strategies

Abstract

A compartmental, age-structured mathematical model was developed and recent US pertussis epidemiology data were used to evaluate the impact on pertussis infection rates of routine and targeted adult immunization strategies. Model simulations predict that the implementation of adolescent immunization only could reverse the current rise in pertussis infection rates but may lead to a resurgence of pertussis in subsequent decades. In contrast, inclusion of a routine adult strategy is likely to lead to sustained control of pertussis. Routine adult vaccination could control the disease even with relatively low coverage rates of 40% for routine vaccination of all adults every 10 years, or 65% for a targeted vaccination of close contacts of newborns completed by one booster dose for all adults. The model also predicts that the optimal age for this booster dose is 40 years. These results support the 2006 American Academy of Immunization Practices' recommendations for adolescent and adult vaccination against pertussis. © 2007 Cambridge University Press.