A detailed forecast of the technologies based on lifecycle analysis of gmaw and cmtwelding processes

Abstract

In this study, GMAW and CMT welding technologies were evaluated in terms of their technological lifecycles based on their patent datasets together with the S-curve concept, and the joints were evaluated in terms of their welding characteristics. To predict the future trends for both technologies, different models based on the time-series and growth-curve methods were tested. From a process point of view, the results showed better performance and stability for the CMT process based on the heat input to the base material and the frequency of the short circuits. The temperature distribution in the sample revealed that the GMAW process delivers higher values and, consequently, greater heat transfer. Regarding the technological lifecycle, the analyses revealed that the CMT welding process, despite being recent, is already in its mature phase. Moreover, the GMAW welding process is positioned in the growth phase on the S-curve, indicating a possibility of advancement. The main findings indicated that through mathematical modelling, it is possible to predict, in a precise way, the inflection points and the maturity phases of each technology and chart their trends with expert opinions. The new perspectives for analysing maturity levels and welding characteristics presented herein will be essential for a broaden decision-making market process.