From semi-stagnation to growth in a sino-centric market

Abstract

According to recent available information, the Brazilian economy may be entering a cycle of sustained growth. The dominant current interpretation points to the progresses made in terms of monetary stability, Balance of Payments and structural reforms. Indeed, without monetary stability and the commercial opening of the economy, investments would not be increasing and credit growth would not be helping tho emergence of millions of new consumers. But these achievements should be taken as generally conditioning, rather than actually shaping the new picture. Some unexpected (not rarely positive) consequences of overcoming the long enduring semi-stagnation, the emergence of China as a major player, and its consequences on the necessary re-structuring of the Brazilian industry, seem to be decisive in the present day redefinition of the Brazilian GDP growth potential.