Price trends on the international steam coal market in 2000-2020

Abstract

Approximately 95% of international trade in steam coal is concentrated in two areas: Asia-Pacific and Atlantic. Prices on the international market depend on the largest exporters and users of coal. The aim of the article is to characterize the price trends that took place in the international trade of energy coal in the years 2000-2020 and to distinguish price indices which, in the opinion of the authors, currently play an important role in this trade. The analysis of steam coal prices in international markets in 2000-2020 made it possible to highlight five periods of rising prices, four periods of falling prices, and one period of the stabilisation of prices. A detailed analysis of the highlighted periods of steam coal price fluctuations in 2000-2020 made it possible to identify groups of factors that significantly affect the level of prices of the analyzed coal in the long term. International steam coal markets are interlinked despite periodic volatility. A very important factor influencing world steam coal prices is the situation in China as it is the largest producer, user and importer of steam coal. A small change in coal production in China significantly affects the volume of trade on the international market. Therefore, the level of freight prices is an important factor influencing the price level for the customer. FOB Australia prices are also correlated with coal suppliers to the European market and Asia-Pacific market in this paper. The very high correlation coefficients obtained confirm the close relationship between the prices of these coals. For many years, the European market has no longer been a trendsetter in international coal markets but has instead been affected by general trends.