Coal market: Analysis and forecast

Abstract

The analysis of the world and Russian coal markets is performed. It has been established that over the past 20 years, coal-producing countries in the Asia-Pacific region have experienced an almost constant increase in coal production, while in North America and the European Union countries, production has fallen, due to environmental programs implemented in these countries and the non-competitiveness of coal in relation to gas. According to expert estimates, the share of coal in the global energy balance will decrease from the current 28% to 23% by 2030, and coal prices will also decrease. In the future, the main driver of coal production growth in Russia will be the growth of fuel exports, while coal supplies in the domestic market will be reduced. Russian export prices for coal are directly dependent on world prices. To increase the competitiveness of Russian coal in both domestic and global markets, it is necessary to take measures to develop transport logistics and reduce its share in the price of coal.