Predicting unemployment: Occupational aspiration–achievement discrepancy as a risk factor in Norwegian young adults

Abstract

Research on risk of unemployment has focused primarily on the importance of individual assets, such as level of education achieved and personal characteristics. This study investigated whether a discrepancy between current occupational position and occupational aspirations predicts unemployment. Achieving occupational aspirations may be highly important for young people in Western societies. The analyses were conducted using longitudinal survey data linked to register data on 1,681 Norwegian young adults. The results showed that being in an occupation with lower status than the occupation to which one aspires significantly predicts the risk of later unemployment. The findings accord with research suggesting that a mismatch between employees’ subjective expectations and their actual job situation has negative consequences. For example, failure to acquire a job that matches one's expectations may lead to unemployment either through proactive behaviour, such as quitting a current job to find a new one, or through giving up, such as withdrawing from work.