Spatial-temporal distribution of debt and delinquency of the elderly in Thailand: Perspectives from the National Credit Bureau data

Abstract

Household debt in Thailand has become a serious problem, particularly for the elderly, because they have less ability to pay debts compared to the working population. Therefore, better understanding of the elderly’s debt and delinquency is crucial in policy formulation for the aged society. Previous works have focused on the elderly’s debt, either at the macro or individual levels. Little is known about geographic differences at the regional level. Knowing where the elderly debt and delinquency tend to cluster could guide area-specific policies to tackle the elderly financial stability. This research aims to examine the spatio-temporal distribution of the debt and delinquency of the near-elderly population (age 50–59) and the elderly (age 60 and above) using data from the National Credit Bureau of Thailand from 2008 to 2019. The analysis focuses on various types of loans. Spatial clusters are identified by Moran’s I and Local Geary statistics. The results show that the pattern of elderly debt and delinquency generally follows the life cycle hypothesis, except for credit card and business-related loans. There exist spatial clusters and spatial differences in different types of loans, suggesting regional heterogeneities that require area-specific policy responses.