Navigating Upstream Indonesia’s Oil and Gas (O&G) Services Industry Amidst the Cleaner Energy Transition Era with A Scenario Planning Framework

Abstract

The global movement for a cleaner energy environment has continuously grown and has become unstoppable. It causes the large carbon-producing sectors, such as the Oil and Gas (O&G) industry, to be under intense pressure to immediately reduce their carbon footprint and to immediately produce cleaner energy sources. Therefore, the business players involved, such as the O&G services industry, need to make the urgent decision to reassess its current business strategy. However, to make the right decision, it needs to have a forward-looking scenario of how the industry will evolve in the middle of the cleaner energy transition era. In this situation, scenario planning becomes essential, as it provides a valuable tool to analyze potential future dynamics regarding the dynamics of the O&G landscape, what drives them, and the impacts they may have. In this research, the researcher developed scenario planning based on the interview involving Indonesia's O&G stakeholders, such as the representative of O&G services companies, operators, regulatory bodies (ESDM and SKK Migas), and energy analyst. The result of scenario planning indicates four possible scenarios for Indonesia's O&G industry in the future, resulting from the interplay between Indonesia's Government Regulation, Incentive / Tax Regimes, with Technological Advancement. These scenarios are Laggard in Cleaner Energy Transition, Vanguard in Cleaner Energy Transition, Stagnation in Cleaner Energy Transition, and Revolution in Cleaner Energy Transition. In the end, the author proposed a business strategy that fits each scenario. The proposed strategy focuses on reassessing the investment scheme, core competencies, strategic partnership, business model, and organization cultures and identity. Thus, by implementing this strategy, the O&G Services industry is expected to thrive, regardless of whichever scenario happens in the future.