Impact of Natural Hazards on Agricultural Production Decision Making of Peasant Households: On the Basis of the Micro Survey Data of Hunan Province

Abstract

The agricultural production decision making of peasant households can have a direct impact on agricultural development trends and national food security, and the impact of natural hazards on the agricultural production decision making of peasant households merits significant consideration. On the basis of the micro survey data of Hunan Province in 2022, this paper empirically discusses the impact of natural hazards on peasant households’ agricultural production decision making by using a Probit model. The study found that: (1) natural hazards did not significantly affect peasant households’ willingness to engage in agricultural production; (2) peasant households will reduce the impact of natural hazards on agricultural production by planting “drought-resistant crop” or “flood-tolerant crop”; and (3) natural hazards will also reduce the probability of peasant households adopting green production decision making. Subsequently, the Logit model is used to test the robustness and the PSM model is used to correct the possible selectivity bias. The above results are supported. The results of a heterogeneity analysis indicate the following: (1) natural hazards can substantially affect the disaster adaptation decision making of young and middle-aged householders, and yet fail to significantly affect the disaster adaptation decision making of elderly householders; (2) natural hazards can severely influence the disaster adaptation as well as green production decision making of peasant households that have not received agricultural technology training but those who have received such training are not significantly impacted; and (3) natural hazards significantly affect the production decision making of peasant households who have not purchased agricultural insurance, and yet fail to significantly affect the production decision making of peasant households who have purchased agricultural insurance. Our findings can provide the government with an empirical basis for formulating pertinent policies.