Dépenses « visibles » et perspectives de réélection dans un scrutin à deux tours : Le cas des élections municipales françaises

Abstract

“Visible” expenditures and reelection prospects in two-round elections: Evidence from the French local elections We investigate the influence of economic and political variables on the electoral outcomes for the incumbent mayor’s political party. Our contributions are the following: (1) we deal with reelection probabilities at each electoral round, (2) we explicitly consider the specificities of the two-round electoral rule and the degree of political competition, and (3) we show that, notwithstanding the impact of traditional variables, the municipalities budget structure influence the electorate. However, operational expenditures and salaries prove strongly influential in France only at the first round. Visible expenditures are mostly influential in smaller municipalities. Finally, ideological and political concerns appear to prevail at the second round.