Assessing the Changing Sino–Russian Relationship: A Longitudinal Analysis of Bilateral Cooperation in the Post-Cold War Period

Abstract

The Sino–Russian relationship is of fundamental importance to the global order. Following the question of how this relationship has developed over time—whether it has strengthened, weakened or remained constant—we present a quantitative analysis of its evolution between 1992 and 2019. To this end, the study develops an original index, the Bilateral Cooperation Intensity (BCI) Index, aimed at measuring bilateral (Sino–Russian) cooperation and considering specific (military, economic, political) dimensions. While our findings verify the assumption that China and Russia have indeed strengthened their cooperation in a progressive manner, with no apparent setback following Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, the results do not corroborate the claims of dramatic change frequently presented in the literature.