AN EFFECTIVE MACHINE LEARNING MODEL FOR CUSTOMER ATTRITION PREDICTIONIN MOTOR INSURANCE USING GWO-KELM ALGORITHM

Abstract

The prediction of customers' churn is a challenging task in different industrial sectors, in which the motor insurance industry is one of the well-known industries. Due to the incessant upgradation done in the insurance policies, the retention process of customers plays a significant role for the concern. The main objective of this study is to predict the behaviors of the customers and to classify the churners and non-churners at an earlier stage.  The Motor Insurance sector dataset consists of 20,000 records with 37 attributes collected from the machine learning industry. The missing values of the records are analyzed and explored via Expectation Maximization algorithm that categorizes the collected data based on the policy renewals. Then, the behavior of the customers are also investigated, so as to ease the construction process training classifiers. With the help of Naive bayes algorithm, the behaviors of the customers on the upgraded policies are examined. Depending on the dependency rate of each variable, a hybrid GWO-KELM algorithm is introduced to classify the churners and non-churners by exploring the optimal feature analysis. Experimental results have proved the efficiency of the hybrid algorithm in terms of 95% prediction accuracy; 97% precision; 91% recall & 94% F-score.