Health evaluation of urban water supply pipe network using the Bayesian method based on triangular fuzzy number optimization

Abstract

With the rapid increase of urbanization level in China, the accidents related to urban water supply pipe network occurred frequently due to the impacts of pipeline aging, environmental change and human factors, thus the health evaluation of urban water supply network has become one of the hot topics in recent years. Related researches mostly refer to qualitative and static analysis, some quantitative studies consider the influence of only one aspect on the status of water supply pipe network such as hydraulic, water quality and static structure, and cannot objectively reflect the health status of pipe network due to neglecting or simplifying the influence of internal hydraulic condition on the health of the pipe network. Comprehensively considering the influencing factors and the hydraulic mechanism during the operation process of pipe network, this study constructs a health evaluation index system for the water supply pipe network, and introduces the triangular fuzzy number theory into the traditional Bayesian water supply network health status evaluation model taking the uncertainty of model structure and data into account. Through applying the method to Yunhe county of Zhejiang Province China, some suggestions for the optimization and transformation of the regional water supply network are proposed, which can provide a basis for ensuring the safety of regional water supply and scientifically determining the renewal sequence of the pipe network.