Mathematical modeling for the outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) under fractional nonlocal operator

Abstract

A mathematical model for the spread of the COVID-19 disease based on a fractional Atangana–Baleanu operator is studied. Some fixed point theorems and generalized Gronwall inequality through the AB fractional integral are applied to obtain the existence and stability results. The fractional Adams–Bashforth is used to discuss the corresponding numerical results. A numerical simulation is presented to show the behavior of the approximate solution in terms of graphs of the spread of COVID-19 in the Chinese city of Wuhan. We simulate our table for the data of Wuhan from February 15, 2020 to April 25, 2020 for 70 days. Finally, we present a debate about the followed simulation in characterizing how the transmission dynamics of infection can take place in society.