The short-term impact of the alcohol act on alcohol-related deaths and hospital admissions in Scotland: a natural experiment

Abstract

Background and aim: The introduction of the Alcohol Act in Scotland on 1 October 2011, which included a ban on multi-buy promotions, was probably associated with a fall in off-trade alcohol sales in the year after its implementation. The aim of this study was to test if the same legislation was associated with reduced levels of alcohol-related deaths and hospital admissions in the 3-year period after its introduction. Design: A natural experiment design using time–series data to assess the impact of the Alcohol Act legislation in Scotland. Comparisons were made with unexposed populations in the rest of Great Britain. Setting: Scotland with comparable data obtained for geographical control groups in other parts of Great Britain. Participants: For alcohol-related deaths, a total of 17 732 in Scotland and 88 001 in England and Wales throughout 169 4-week periods between January 2001 and December 2013 and for alcohol-related hospital admissions, a total of 121 314 in Scotland and 696 892 in England throughout 182 4-week periods between January 2001 and December 2014. Measurements: Deaths and hospital admissions in Scotland and control groups that were wholly attributable to alcohol for consecutive 4-week periods between January 2001 and December 2014. Data were obtained by age, sex and area-based socio-economic position. Findings: There was no evidence to suggest that the Alcohol Act was associated with changes in the overall rate of alcohol-related deaths [incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.99, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.91–1.07)] or hospital admissions (IRR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.95–1.02) in Scotland. In control group analyses, the pseudo intervention variable was not associated with a change in alcohol-related death rates in England/Wales (IRR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.95–1.02), but was associated with an increase in alcohol-related hospital admission rates in England (IRR = 1.05, 95% CI = 1.03–1.07). In combined models, the interaction analysis did not provide support for a ‘net effect’ of the legislation on alcohol-related deaths in Scotland compared with England/Wales (IRR 0.99, 95% CI = 0.95–1.04), but suggested a net reduction in hospital admissions for Scotland compared with England (IRR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.87–0.98). Conclusion: The implementation of the Alcohol Act in Scotland has not been associated clearly with a reduction in alcohol-related deaths or hospital admissions in the 3-year period after it was implemented in October 2011.