Global, regional, and national disease burden of arthropod-borne diseases: Projections to 2030 based on the global burden of disease study 2021

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Arthropod-borne diseases (ABDs) represent an ongoing threat to global public health, affecting millions annually with viral, bacterial and parasitic infections worldwide. METHODS: Data on prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for ABDs were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. Based on DALYs, the nine ABDs were categorized into protozoan, helminthic, and viral diseases. Temporal trends were quantified using the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPRs) and age-standardized DALY rates (ASDRs). Frontier analysis was applied to evaluate deviations from the expected disease burden according to sociodemographic index (SDI), and Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to project future disease burdens through 2030. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, the global ASDR for ABDs declined from 1,219.26 to 884.16 per 100,000 population. Protozoiasis caused the most substantial burden (ASDR 819.83), followed by helminthiases and viral diseases. Although ASDRs declined across the three major disease categories overall, dengue fever exhibited a significant upward trend within the viral disease group (AAPC = 0.83%). Burdens remained concentrated in low and lower-middle SDI regions, though High-income Asia Pacific and Australasia experienced notable increases. Frontier analysis indicated that while parasitic burdens declined with rising SDI, viral disease patterns varied: dengue peaked at middle SDI, and Zika increased with SDI. Adolescents and young adults bore the greatest burden, with distinct sex-specific differences. Projections suggest that by 2030, ASPRs for malaria and African trypanosomiasis, as well as ASDRs for malaria, African trypanosomiasis, and leishmaniasis, will increase. CONCLUSIONS: Protozoan infections, particularly malaria, continue to dominate the burden of arthropod-borne diseases. Although the overall burden of viral diseases declined modestly, certain arboviral infections, including dengue, showed increasing trends. The distinct geographic concentration of these infections, coupled with the rising threat of arboviral diseases, underscores the urgent need for enhanced surveillance systems, expanded vaccination coverage, and strengthened global collaboration to mitigate future risks.