Africa’s demographic challenge

Abstract

Africa’s population growth is unprecedented. With an annual rate of 2.5–3% in most years since 1960 population growth has far outpaced all other world regions, with more than 30 million people added annually. This chapter gives an overview of past and expected future population trends, in the context of the agricultural change of the continent. The exceptional population growth of today can be viewed as catching up, since until recently Africa was underpopulated, compared to other regions of the world. African population growth is broadly in line with the universal shape of the demographic transition, but the average number of children per woman, the key indicator for population growth, is about one child higher compared to other Global South countries (the so-called ‘Africa-factor’). The question for the future is whether this factor will persist or not. Various global population projections are in agreement that the African population in 2050 will be between 2.3 and 2.7 billion, which means that another billion will be added to the population in the next quarter of a century. In West Africa population growth is dominated by urban expansion, whereas in the Sahel and East Africa rural growth is dominant. Northern and Southern African countries show more moderate growth, predominantly fuelled by urban expansion, although in Egypt, Sudan, and Zimbabwe, rural population growth is predominant. These cross-country differences have varying consequences for the role of agricultural change and stress the need to take the diversity of the continent into account.