Oceanography and Culture Shape Morphometric Divergence in Portunus pelagicus: Defining Actionable Management Units for Climate-Resilient Recreational Fisheries in Asia

Abstract

Sustainable management of Portunus pelagicus is hindered by uncertain stock boundaries across rapidly changing marginal seas and culturally diverse markets. We measured 12 size-adjusted morphometrics in 525 adults from five sites (Kyushu, Xiamen, Tainan, Hong Kong, and Singapore). Canonical variate analysis resolved three robust groups that mirror oceanographic regimes: a Kuroshio–China group (Kyushu, Xiamen, and Hong Kong), a Taiwan Strait subgroup (Tainan), and a Southeast Asia group (Singapore). Permutation tests (1000 runs) showed near-zero probabilities of observing the low misclassification rates by chance (p < 0.001). A reproductive trait (female AB3W) displayed group-specific allometric slopes, consistent with local functional demands. We integrate these results with a cultural ecology lens—linking ornamental carapace valuation to selective harvest—to propose morphological management units (MMUs) and region-specific rules that can be implemented immediately and refined with genomics. This work reframes a descriptive morphometric study into a socio-ecological mechanism for climate-ready, actionable fisheries governance.