The future of North American grassland birds: Incorporating persistent and emergent threats into full annual cycle conservation priorities

Abstract

North American grasslands are one of the most threatened ecosystems in the world, and grassland bird populations have experienced drastic declines over the past half century. Land-use change is widely accepted as the most persistent threat, and climate change is expected to further compromise grassland integrity. The limited consideration of projected future threats is a significant gap in existing conservation priorities for North America's central grasslands. We identified Grassland Climate Strongholds (predicted to have high climate suitability for grassland birds both today and under 21st century climate change scenarios) and Grassland Climate and Land-use Strongholds (predicted to have high climate and land-use suitability for grassland birds today and under 21st century climate change scenarios). Strongholds were mainly distributed across southern Canada, the Dakotas, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, the Oklahoma Panhandle, Texas, and the Chihuahuan Desert. Strongholds vulnerable to land-use conversion included the Prairie Pothole region and surrounding areas, much of the eastern-central Plains, the Texas Blackland Prairie, the Western Gulf Coastal Plain, and areas west of the Chihuahuan Desert. A maximum of only 9% of strongholds were protected. Strongholds are critical for full annual cycle conservation of declining grassland birds in North America and complement existing grassland priorities.