The Economic Potential of Agrivoltaic Systems in Apple Cultivation—A Hungarian Case Study

Abstract

Agrivoltaic systems (AVS) allow the simultaneous use of land—as a limited resource—for crop production and electricity generation. This paper introduces the development prospects of AVS in Hungary with insights into international trends. The most important part is a complex economic analysis and a unit cost analysis of a 38 MWp capacity AVS, considering the most typical basic data in electricity and apple production. The applied risk analysis is based on a Monte Carlo simulation, the distribution function, and probabilities. To introduce the economic facet of the competitiveness of AVS, a comparative analysis was carried out between AVS, ground-mounted photovoltaic (GM-PV) systems, and conventional apple production systems (ConAPS). In the most probable scenario, the AVS was financially attractive (NPV = 70 million EUR under 30 years). Our correlation analysis shows that feed-in tariff (FIT) price and the role of financing are considered the dominant economic factors. A favorable FIT price enhances the profitability of AVS; however, it makes GM-PV systems more profitable compared to AVS, so it negatively affects the competitiveness of AVS systems. AVS operations result in a more balanced unit cost of apples and of electricity compared to the independent operation of GM-PV systems and of ConAPS; in addition, it allows for land saving and more intensive land use.