Modeling vineyard expansion, potential habitat fragmentation

Abstract

We used a statistical modeling technique called logistic regres- sion analysis, and a geographic information system (GIs), to map areas of possible future vineyard expansion in Sonoma County, based on data about vineyard de- velopment from 7990 through 1997. The goal of this research was to develop a model that would improve our understanding of vineyard expansion pafterns at a landscape scale (for instance, including an entire county). The approach involved identifying landscape characteristics that were associated with vineyard de- velopment and mapping the areas with similar characteristics that were undeveloped in 7997. We used the results to map where habitat removal and fragmentation could result from vineyard expan- sion. This method, although still under development, is designed for county- or regional-scale analysis to assist land-use plan- ners, natural resource protection agencies and land conservation programs in protecting valuable environmental resources while sustaining a vital agricultural economy.