Hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance: a health economic evaluation

Abstract

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) imposes a major health and economic burden worldwide, with disproportionate effects in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). Surveillance in high-risk populations, typically using semian-nual ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein testing, has been shown to be cost-effective by enabling earlier detection and improving survival. Yet, its overall value is reduced by poor adherence and the limited sensitivity of ultrasound, par-ticularly in patients with metabolic-associated steatotic liver disease. Emerging approaches—including abbreviated magnetic resonance imaging, multi-biomarker models (e.g., gender, age, AFP, AFP-L3, and DCP), and liquid biopsy assays such as methylated DNA markers—demonstrate greater diagnostic accuracy and potential economic advan-tages compared with conventional methods. Integration of artificial intelligence into imaging may further enhance efficiency and reduce downstream costs. Moving toward precision surveillance, guided by individualized risk stratification that incorporates etiology, fibrosis stage, and molecular profiles, can optimize allocation of resources and maximize cost-effectiveness at the population level. Interventions to improve adherence, including mailed outreach and behavioral economic incentives, have shown both clinical benefit and cost savings, underscoring the role of implementation science. Because socioeconomic disparities influence both access and outcomes, economic models must explicitly address equity to achieve sustainable impact. Future research should prioritize prospective trials that evaluate not only clinical performance but also the real-world cost-effectiveness of novel technologies and stratified surveillance strategies. For LMICs, adapting proven models into affordable, context-appropriate programs is essen-tial. By combining prevention, precision risk assessment, innovative technologies, and equitable implementation, HCC surveillance can deliver both clinical and economic value, reducing the global burden of disease.