Modeling disease spread via transport-related infection by a delay differential equation

Abstract

A delayed SIS model is developed to describe the effect of transport-related infection, where time delay arises very naturally and the basic reproduction number Ro can be calculated. It is shown that this number characterizes the disease transmission dynamics: if. Ro < 1, there exists only the disease-free equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable; and if Ro > 1, then there is a disease endemic equilibrium and the disease persists. Analysis of the dependence of Ro on the transport-related infection parameters shows that an outbreak can arise purely due to this transport-related infection. Copyright © 2008 Rocky Mountain Mathematics Consortium.