A conceptual foundation for assessing and managing risk, surprises and black swans

Abstract

This chapter presents and discusses some recent advances in the risk field, linked to the conceptualisation of risk and specifically addressing unforeseen events, surprises and so-called black swans. It shows how the traditional probability-based perspectives on risk are extended to broader ways of thinking about risk, which give due attention to the uncertainties and also draw on ideas from inter alia the quality discourse and organisational learning (collective mindfulness and its five principles: preoccupation with failure, reluctance to simplify, sensitivity to operations, commitment to resilience and deference to expertise). The main aims of the chapter are to point to this thinking and provide some reflections on how to use it for further developing the risk assessment and risk management fields.