A Hybrid Model for Prediction in Asphalt Pavement Performance Based on Support Vector Machine and Grey Relation Analysis

Abstract

Pavement performance prediction is a crucial issue in big data maintenance. This paper develops a hybrid grey relation analysis (GRA) and support vector machine regression (SVR) technique to predict pavement performance. The prediction model can solve the shortcomings of the traditional model including a single consideration factor, a short prediction period, and easy overfitting. GAR is employed in selecting the main factors affecting the performance of asphalt pavement. The SVR is performed to predict the performance. Finally, the data collected from the weather station installed on Guangyun Expressway were adopted to verify the validity of the GRA-SVR model. Meanwhile, the contrast with the grey model (GM (1, 1)), genetic algorithm optimization BP[[parms resize(1),pos(50,50),size(200,200),bgcol(156)]]081%, -0.823%, 1.270%, and -4.569%, respectively. The study concluded that the nonlinear and multivariate prediction model established by GRA-SVR has higher precision and operability, which can be used in long-period pavement performance prediction.