How Climate Change Will Affect the Brazilian Energy System: Evidence from a Systematic Review

Abstract

Energy systems are increasingly vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events, particularly as reliance on renewable sources grows. This systematic review analyzes 65 scientific articles to assess future climate change impacts on the energy system of Brazil, a global leader in renewable energy. The review reveals that climate change may have strong negative and some mild positive impacts, varying by energy system component, location, climate variable, climate model, emissions scenario, and methodology. Significant threats to energy security in Brazil include managing space-cooling demand and adapting the hydropower sector. Solar energy faces uncertainties in the South while biofuels may struggle in the Northeast. In contrast, wind energy could enhance energy security in the Northeast, Southeast, and South. These findings highlight the need for adaptive energy planning to mitigate climate impacts and serve as a crucial resource for policymakers aiming to enhance energy resilience in the Global South.