Soybean yield in future climate scenarios for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

Abstract

The objective of this work was to estimate the yield potential and the water-limited yield of soybean (Glycine max) in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, in two future climate scenarios, SRES A1B and RCP4.5, using the SoySim and Cropgro-Soybean simulation models. In both models, three maturity groups (4.8, 5.5, and 6.0) and six sowing dates (09/01, 10/01, 11/01, 12/01, 01/01, and 02/01) were considered in the SRES A1B-CMIP3 and RCP4.5-CMIP5 scenarios. The analyzed variable was grain yield at 13% moisture (Mg ha-1). Soybean yield potential in Rio Grande do Sul should increase up to the end of the 21st century, according to both scenarios. Water-limited yield of soybean also increases up to the end of the 21st century, by the SRES A1B-CMIP3 scenario; however, it will decrease in future periods, by the RCP4.5-CMIP5 scenario because of limited soil water.