Psychology at the screen: Investigating the current VAR protocol

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the psychological process of the current Video Assistant Referee (VAR) protocol by calculating, i) the prevalence of overturn/maintain decisions by the referee at the pitch-side monitor, ii) the likelihood that the referee would overturn their decision based on external factors, iii) the likelihood that the VAR would intervene based on external factors. 1520 matches were reviewed across 2021/22–2024/25 seasons in the English Premier League where the referee was advised to consult the pitch-side monitor 250 times, overturning their original decision 95% of the time. Binary Logistic Regression found that external factors did not predict the referee’s decision or VAR intervention. The high prevalence of overturn decisions may be expected as referees are being advised to review potential errors and interestingly maintain decisions were more prevalent when related to the home team, potentially due to proximity bias of the home crowd.